Daily Market Report – February 04, 2021 [correction]

For today’s report we are expecting -199 Bcf draw. The market expectations are between all over the place with a range of -216 to -182. The current Bloomberg Whisper sits at -191.

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of Feb 3^rd.

Week Ending Jan 29 is -195

Week Ending Feb 5 is -160

Week Ending Feb 12 is -230

There current end of Winter (Apr 8^th) is 1575 [was 1615 last week]
There current end of Summer (Nov 12^th) is 3500. [was 3500 last week]

This mornings weather runs are more tame than we have seen the past week. Both the Euro Ensembles and GFS Ensemble directionally showing the same change vs 24H ago. Both models lost HDDs in the 1-5 and 6-10 period, while picking up some HDDs in the 11-15 period. These changes were already starting to show up in yesterday’s 12z run; hence we consider this morning’s 00z run neutral.

The current 15D look has the coolest nationwide temps arriving between Feb 11 and 14, after which we start deviating towards the 10Y normal.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  91 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.73 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.64 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 101.1 Bcf today,  -4.9 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.41 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 41.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.9 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.

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