Daily Market Report – February 05, 2021

With another round of cooler 00z model runs, the market surpassed the $3 overnight. The GFS Ensemble added 24 HDDs in the back half of the 15 day forecast window, while the Euro Ensemble added 28 all mainly in the 6-10 day window. A lot of these changes were already seen in the 12z yesterday which started setting the market off towards the $3 mark.

Vs Yesterday’s 00z

vs. Yesterday’s 12z.

Also to report, rigs are climbing once again. WTI prices touching $57/bbl has added optimism amongst the oil plays and we are consistently seeing rigs added to the oil plays. Below is a snapshot from Platts as of Feb 3^rd.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  91.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.58 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 102.7 Bcf today,  +0.71 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.96 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 26.94 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 42.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.4 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today.

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