This morning’s runs compared to Friday’s 12z were mixed. The GFS Ensemble overall gain 9 GWHDDs with the front end warming further, and the backend showing more signs of cool temps. The Euro Ensemble was bearish with a loss of 9 GWHDDs all in the 1-5 day periods.
Currently there is not much alignment between the two models. The GFS Ensemble continues to show cooler than normal temps into the back third of February, while the Euro Ensemble retreats near the 10Y normal by gas day 17.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.87 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.66 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 115.1 Bcf today, -3.1 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +7.05 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.34 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 52 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-08-2021.pdf