Daily Market Report – February 11, 2021

For today’s report we are expecting -184 Bcf draw. The market expectations are between all over the place with a range of -192 to -170.

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of Feb 3^rd.

Week Ending Feb 5 is -180

Week Ending Feb 12 is -295
Week Ending Feb 19 is -300

There current end of Winter (Apr 8^th) is 1480 [was 1575 last week]
There current end of Summer (Nov 12^th) is 3520. [was 3500 last week]

This mornings weather runs are bearish compared to the 12z run yesterday. Both models lost HDDs in the 1-5, but beyond that only the Euro Ensemble backed off on GWHDDs.

The cooler temps are starting to impact production. Production is down roughly 4.5 Bcf/d today vs. Last week. The cooler temps throughout the weekend should keep production levels low. Coming out of this cold spell we should see production recover fast.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  87.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.25 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -4.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 116.9 Bcf today,  -0.4 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.96 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.24 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 51.6 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.7 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.

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