The EIA reported a smaller-than-expected 171 Bcf withdrawal for week ending Feb 5. This was a huge miss compared to analyst expectation, and it sent prices immediately lower. The South Central was one of the regions that showed a smaller than expected withdrawals, and the increase in wind generation seems to be the culprit. Wind generation jumped to 46.8 GW during the reporting week from 35.6 GW in the prior.
Today’s 00z runs show some bearish moves with both the Euro Ensemble and GFS Ensemble losing GWHDDs. As seen in the chart below, the GEFS Ensemble showed warming across each day, while the Euro Ensemble showed warming on the back end. The forecast from both models now takes us to the 10Y normal by Feb 23.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 85.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.43 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -5.59 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Freeze-offs are impacting production across almost all major producing regions. The NE is expected to produce 31.8 Bcf/d today, which is about 2.2 Bcf/d off it highs set earlier this winter.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 117.6 Bcf today, -0.59 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.78 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 55.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 7.2 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-12-2021.pdf