After a wild week of weather runs last week, today’s 00z is mixed compared to yesterday’s runs. The GFS Ensemble showed some cooling in the first 7 days, but warming past that. The Euro Ensemble added 13 HDDs evenly across the entire forecast window. The latest weather forecast shows temps return back to normal levels by next Tuesday.
With severe cold temps across the country this past weekend, we saw brown-outs as power systems coped with high levels of demand and severe production freeze-offs. Below are the daily balances posted by Bloomberg. The last 7 days are ultra interesting. Too start, production hit a low of 75.2 Bcf/d yesterday which is roughly 16 Bcf/d lower than normal. Demand hit 120 Bcf/d yesterday with RC at 60 bcf/d. To help balance the system we saw Canadian imports jump, while LNG and Mexican exports fall. LNG took less than 5 Bcf/d yesterday.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 77.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +2.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -8.32 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 115.6 Bcf today, -4.23 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.15 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.24 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 57 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 7.9 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-16-2021.pdf