There are still a lot of moving piece in the natgas S/D this morning. Over 3M people still without power with that concentrated in the Texas area
ERCOT has called a Level 3 Alert load shedding alert while crews try and get power systems back up and running. It doesn’t appear there has been much progress in getting power back up across the state as of this morning. The Texas Governor has asked industrial scale operations to scale back, especially along the Gulf Coast which has been hit the hardest.
With this request we saw many LNG facilities scale back yesterday. Total LNG feedgas deliveries were revised to 1.4 Bcf for Feb 16. Today’s LNG deliveries are nominated to be 5.5 Bcf/d, but we believe this will be revised lower in later runs.
Production is one of the big mysteries still, with different vendors posting different levels of freeze offs. The reason being the pipeline data is not as reliable for Texas since most of the production is delivered to intrastate pipelines that are not required to report daily. BNEF shows today’s production levels at 70.5 Bcf/d, which is more than 20 Bcf off the normal Jan levels. Temperatures are expected warm up by later this week in West Texas – hence we could see this depressed level of production for a couple of more days.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 70.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -6.99 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -13.12 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 117.3 Bcf today, -2.64 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -5.29 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.94 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 58.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 5.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 7.9 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-17-2021.pdf