The nat gas markets are slowly returning to normal. Yesterday’s final pipeline nomination data showed production back to ~84 Bcf/d. The outage is still mainly concentrated in the TX and Midcontinent area. With no real power outages to report in Texas today (only 15k customers), we assume production will make its way back up.
Weather was bearish this weekend. Both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble lost between 19-20 GWHDDs. This now points to March starting very warm – well below the 10Y normal.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 81.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.87 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +7.31 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 96.1 Bcf today, -5.68 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -18.2 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 24.94 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 38.8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 8.6 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 5.8 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Feb-22-2021.pdf