The latest data from BNEF shows production steam rolling back. Yesterday’s estimates were revised here by over 4 Bcf, and today’s estimate is current 88 Bcf/d. Today’s level shows almost all the production returning after last week’s cold episode. We are now 3-4 Bcf/d behind the average Jan levels.

 

 

Weather models were mixed this morning vs yesterday’s 12z run. The GFS Ensemble showed cooler temps in the 6-10 period, while the Euro Ensemble showed warmer in the 6-10. Overall all both models are showing temps warmer than the 10Y Normal levels.

 

Note: Mar options expire today, and Mar futures expire on tomorrow.

 

Today’s Fundamentals:

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  88 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +1.8 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +11.86 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 89.2 Bcf today,  -5.93 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -20.71 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 24.24 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 33.9 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.4 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.5 Bcf today.

This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.