Daily Market Report – February 25, 2021

For today’s report we are expecting -328 Bcf draw. The market expectations are all over the place with a range of -371 to -287.

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of Feb 24^rd.

Week Ending Feb 19 is -310

Week Ending Feb 26 is -189
Week Ending Mar 5 is -109

There current end of Winter (Apr 8^th) is 1500 [was 1450 last week]
There current end of Summer (Nov 12^th) is 3480. [was 3500 last week]

Today’s S/D data is starting to look quite normal. Below we took a snapshot of the today and the previous 3 Thursdays. You can see most  line item are close to where they were before this cold episode started. LNG was above 10 Bcf/d yesterday, but Sabine looks to have dropped some feedgas volumes.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  91.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.93 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +9.11 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 91.3 Bcf today,  +5.75 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.45 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 254 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 36.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 8.7 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5 Bcf today.

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