Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 92.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.84 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.71 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production has been quite volatile since the start of the holiday season. We saw a big push higher in production during the last week of December, and then a big drop off to start the year. The drop looks to be associated with freeze-offs across multiple regions. The table below summarizes daily production by the main producing region and compares it against the Dec average. This potential episode of freeze-offs has removed to ~5 Bcf/d with Texas (Gulf) production being the hardest. Other regions that saw notable losses is the Midcon (oily plays), Northeast (wet natgas plays), and Rockies (dry and wet natgas plays).
Source: BNEF
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 104.9 Bcf today, -4.49 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 42.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.3 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.4 Bcf today. Canadian imports increased the past few days as US domestic production has dropped with freeze-offs.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -43 Bcf today. We expect to see a wide range of estimates for this week’s report as last week had a surge in production, and it was a long (but mainly warm at the national level) holiday week.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-05-2022.pdf