Weather turned much cooler past this week. The Euro Ensemble showed the biggest change with the West turning warmer, but every other region cooling significantly. The Euro Ensemble added 17 GWHDDs in the 6-10 and 11-15 period, leading to a big jump in price at this week’s open.
From a demand perspective, the 2nd half of January will likely be the coldest few weeks of the seasons at the national level. Here is the storage regional breakout TDDs vs. the 10Y normal from the two major models.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 92.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.61 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.48 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 114.5 Bcf today, +8.35 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.29 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 50.3 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.3 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -178 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-10-2022.pdf