Today’s 00z Euro Ensemble run unwound some of the changes we saw yesterday with warming in the 6-15 period in the Northeast, Midwest and West.
Looking forward, the latest Niña weekly data continue to show moderate intensity range at -1.1C colder sea surface temperatures vs. normal.
NOAA CFS hesitant to warm sea surface temperatures as much into summer, suggesting longer stay of current La Niña conditions.
Majority of ensemble members from all three (American, European, Canadian) favor 1/14, 1/21, and 1/28 (shown below) EIA weeks to run colder than normal with above normal HDDs. Current Feb forecast are set up to look like the classic La NiNa pattern showing a cool NW to warmer South/East.
(posted by CWG)
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 92.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.72 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.69 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 116 Bcf today, -0.97 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.71 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 51.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -178 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-11-2022.pdf