Daily Market Report – Jan 14, 2022

The EIA reported a -179 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Jan 7th, which was mostly inline with analyst estimates. The biggest moving piece in the report for week was a drop in production (-3.2 Bcf/d WoW) natural gas consumption (+18.6 WoW). That makes sense based on the sudden cold weather with the start of the year. The deep freeze cut production from the Bakken down to the Permian basin.

This is how weather looked last week vs normal:

The cold weather has prices on a rollercoaster. Today’s weather run showed mixed signals with the GFS Ensemble gaining some GWHDDS past this week, and the Euro Ensemble losing GWHDDs. That being said, with today change the two models are well aligned for the next 15 days. Both models show the 11-15 day period being 30+ HDDs cooler than normal.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.69 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.33 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 102.2 Bcf today,  +2.62 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.79 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 41.8 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -197 Bcf today.

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