Today’s 00z Euro Ensemble shifted to a cooler pattern, while the GFS Ensemble was relatively flat over the next 15 days.
The overall pattern indicates cooler than normal temps through the entire short-term forecast for all regions, but the Midwest & East are expected to be the furthest from normal. This should lead to stronger demand and continued low production out of the Northeast basins. Current production levels in the Northeast are ~3 Bcf/ lower than the peak reached at the end of December. To offset the lower production, net Canadian imports have picked up.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 94.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.08 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.31 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 104.9 Bcf today, -2.57 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -6.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 41.3 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.6 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -201 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-19-2022.pdf