Daily Market Report – Jan 20, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is -201 Bcf (S/D -201, Flow -204)

The current Bloomberg survey is -197 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at -203 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is -198 [today’s report]

Week 2 is -201

Week 3 is -270

There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 8^th) is 1460. [Last week was 1515]

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3600. [Last week was 3600]

Today’s weather runs showed a significant warming trending in the back half of the 15 day forecast. Both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble picked this up. The charts below show the 24hour change in the HDDs that now brings the start of Feb near the 10Y normal level.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  92.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.76 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.41 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 119.4 Bcf today,  +12.63 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +7.26 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 51.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13.2 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 7.9 Bcf today.

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