Weather runs continue to trend warmer for the first week of Feb. Both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble lost HDDs to start next month, but the Euro Ensemble is warmer overall for the start of the next month.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 94.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.03 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Northeast production continues to remain lower with freeze-offs hitting the region mid-Jan. The South Central also lost some production over the weekend due to cooler temps, but that looks to be resolved in today’s nomination data.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 114.6 Bcf today, -2.89 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.56 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 48.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13 Bcf today. All facilities are operating at strong levels to hit record LNG delivery levels.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.8 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -219 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-24-2022.pdf