Daily Market Report – Jan 26, 2022

Nat gas markets are stronger this morning with more cool temps showing up in the first week of February. Both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble verified cooler temps in early Feb taking levels above to the 10Y normal. With this latest forecast there is the potential of another 200+ Bcf draw for week ending Feb 11^th, which looks to be moving the Feb price higher this morning.

As we have seen so far in January, the cooler weather has impacted both consumption and supply levels leading to strong daily storage pulls.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  94.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.07 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.32 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 123 Bcf today,  +5.36 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.47 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 57.2 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.8 Bcf today. Freeport continues to struggle with a loss of power to the pretreatment plant that knocked out trains 1,2, & 3. Here is the notice from Freeport laying out the details.

Mexican exports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 7.1 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -220 Bcf today.

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