Nat gas prices opened strong yesterday. Over the weekend there was no significant change in weather forecasts. The pattern from Friday’s 12Z actually shows a net loss in HDDs. With today’s forecast, we see sharp cold for the first week of Jan, after which both models indicate temps below the 10Y.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.15 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.57 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production out of the SC has started to trend higher this weekend to get over production levels back to those seen during the first half of December.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 112.6 Bcf today, -5.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -7.93 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 29.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 48.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12 Bcf today. Sabine LNG deliveries dropped to 4 Bcf/d yesterday.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 3 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is -277 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-31-2022.pdf