Cooler temps finally showed up in the forecast and the market got the trigger to move higher. The first 10 days of the 15 day forecast are still well below the 10Y normal, but the backend is starting to show some signs of cooler temps. In today’s 00z run, the GFS Ensemble added 1.3 HDDs and the Euro Ensemble added 11.6 HDDs.
Below is Maxar’s February outlook from January 6th. The cooler temps look to be concentrated in Western Canada and the Northwest, while most of the L48 will experience mild to warm conditions.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 89.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.48 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.99 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 103.7 Bcf today, -4.19 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.78 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.34 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 43.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 9.9 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-12-2021.pdf