The prompt month contract (Feb) continues to show weakness with the late-Jan cooler temps never showing up. The prompt contract gapped lower on Sunday and is currently trading at 2.60.
The biggest driver for the change is the loss in HDD in the back end of the forecast. The current 000z GFS Ensemble lost 17+ HDDs vs the Friday 12z run, and the Euro Ensemble lost 11+ HDDs over the same time frame. As can be seen in the charts below, the warming trend shows up past Jan 24th.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 88.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.23 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.59 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 100.9 Bcf today, +1.73 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.99 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.34 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 41.7 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-19-2021.pdf