The prompt month contract (Feb) dropped further this morning with the Euro Ensemble warming in the 11-15 day period to bring it closer in line with the GFS Ensemble. The Euro Ensemble lost 6.4 HDDs in that time frame to bring it closer to the 10Y normal pattern.
The end of Jan is cooler than the 10Y, but that cold does not stick around as we enter Feb.
The Feb forecast continues to show the same warmer than normal pattern. Western Canada remains cold, which is typical of a la nina, but warmth across the South and the East coast. Below is the latest CFS outlook.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.01 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.34 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 103 Bcf today, +3.26 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +4.7 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 27.14 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 43.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-20-2021.pdf