After a string of cooler overnight revisions, today both 00z models showed significant warming. The GFS Ensemble lost 23 HDDs vs yesterday’s 00z run, and the Euro Ensemble lost 19 HDDs. This warmer change did showing up in yesterday’s afternoon run, but the market price did not really start to move lower until late last night as the 00z GFS Ensemble confirmed the major shift warmer.
The warming trend was focussed on the back end of the 15D forecast.
For tomorrow’s storage report, our final projection is -127 Bcf. We reckon the estimate range will be wide with last week’s storage report period following over the holiday.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.68 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.14 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 97.4 Bcf today, -1.33 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 28.84 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 40.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-Jan-06-2021.pdf