Daily Market Report – July 01, 2021

Late yesterday, TCO sent out a critical notice at 2:34pm noting an operational event affecting two processing plants, Sherwood and Mobley. The result of the outage was 2 Bcf/d of production being shut-in. The current outage event is estimated to last until end of day today, but not much detail has been dispersed yet. Current theories of the outage range from a lightning strike to a cyber attack. Neither has been confirmed by Markwest. We did see App production drop substantially as a result. Natgas prices exploded on the release of the notice, but fell off the highs that topped 3.80.

For today’s storage report our final projection is +69 Bcf  (S/D @ +69, Scrape @ +74)

The current Bloomberg survey is +68 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +68 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week Ending Jun 25 is +63

Week Ending Jul 02 is +26

Week Ending Jul 09 is +36

There current end of Summer 2021 (Nov 12^th) is 3634. [Last week was 3600]
There current end of Winter 2021/22 (Apr 14^th) is 1729. (no open interest)

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  86.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -3.36 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -5.68 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The duration of the Markwest processing plant outages are unknown at this time.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 72.7 Bcf today,  -6.26 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -3.69 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.3 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.4 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 7.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.4 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +69 Bcf today.                                                                                                                                                                                                    

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