Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.15 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.65 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The big increase in production over the weekend to above 97 Bcf/d disappeared in this mornings nomination data, as drops were seen across almost every major shale region. The biggest drop comes out of the SC. That being said, the unexpected jump in production is adding to the overall bearish view.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.5 Bcf today, +0.34 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.94 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 41.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.2 Bcf. Power burns have held above 40 Bcf/d after the long weekend as the CDD count across the country is leading to stronger power loads.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.2 Bcf today.
For week ending June 24th, both the S/D storage model and flow model are pointing to +68 Bcf. Below is the regional break down of the flow based model + the week storage activity at the 4 facilities that report on a weekly basis.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-July-06-2022.pdf