Daily Market Report – July 07, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is +68 Bcf (S/D +68 and Flow +68). We do see some risk to a bigger injection, with Non-salt typically coming in higher by 2-3 Bcf that we usually anticipate.  

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +75 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +72 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +74 [today’s report]

Week 2 is +41

Week 3 is +32

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3620. [Last week was 3520]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1475. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  96.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.56 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.88 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Today’s early nomination drop is mainly coming out of the Northeast, specifically from the TETCO system. We will see if this lower volume holds in later nom cycles.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 78.5 Bcf today,  -0.64 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.31 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.2 Bcf. Power burns are starting to creep to higher levels as temps pick up across the country. The weekend looks to have extreme heat once again plastered over the SC and Midcon and heavy rain over the east coast.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today. As we have noted in our weekend report a few weeks back, we are expecting to see the Gulf Coast LNG facilities reduce utilization as the extreme heat picks up.

Mexican exports are expected to be 7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.1 Bcf today.

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