After getting through a warmer than normal June, NOAA’s final outlook for July 2020 shows increased chances for above-normal temperatures across much of the country and below-normal rains for the four corners and parts of the Central and Southern Plains. We are looking for above normal burns this July, as we incorporate the effects of low prices and this hot forecast.
For the short-term, today’s GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble runs both gave up a couple of CDDs in the 1-5 day range versus the same run yesterday. With that, the forecasted temps are to come in well-above the 10Y normal. We anticipate burns to reach 40 Bcf/d by next week and TDDs (total degree days) are forecast to rise over 15.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 83.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.96 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average. We expect today’s drop to be revised higher, as we typically see lower production nomination data on the first couple of days of the month.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 71.2 Bcf today, -0.06 Bcf compared to the weekend and +1.37 Bcf to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 3.2 Bcf/d today.
Mexican exports are 5.2 Bcf/d. Net Canadian imports increased to 4.1 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-July-1-2020.pdf