Daily Market Report – July 12, 2022

Weather continues to run warmer in mid to late July. The GFS Ensemble increased by 4 CDDs over the next couple of weeks, while the Euro Ensemble increased by 3 CDDs. Both models once again added more heat to the SC. July 8-12^th already setting records in the ERCOT region. This 5 day stretch fell in the top 15 hot days for the region of all time.

Here are the hottest ERCOT days on record (This posted by Maxar Weather on http://enelyst.com yesterday)

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  94.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.84 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.98 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The big drop in production is spread between the NE (-1.2) and SC (-0.7). Its quite a big change, but the drop comes from multiple pipelines in both regions. We will review data from later nomination cycles to see if this holds.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 80 Bcf today,  +0.65 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.51 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 43.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.5 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.1 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.4 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +53 Bcf today.

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