Daily Market Report – July 13, 2022

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  94.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.41 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.49 Bcf/d to the 7D average. These are production levels last seen in early April. The South Central has lost 1.4 Bcf/d over the week, while the NE has lost nearly 0.5 Bcf/d. The route reason is unknown, as the loss is spread across multiple regions and multiple pipelines.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 79.7 Bcf today,  -1.4 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.22 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.6 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 7.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today.

For week ending July 8th, the S/D storage model is point to a +53 Bcf injection and flow model is point to a +59 Bcf. Its difficult to understand anything in the high 50s with the previous week posting +60, and temps being 1.9 F warmer week-on-week. That being said, this upcoming report does include the July 4^th holiday, which we attribute to 7 Bcf/d lower demand on that day. Below is the regional break down of the flow based model + the week storage activity at the 4 facilities that report on a weekly basis.

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