Daily Market Report – July 14, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is +57 Bcf (average of our S/D @ +53 and our Flow +59). We do see some risk in a larger injection, despite seeing a +60 last week at a much cooler temperature point. This week’s report covers the July 4^th holiday which typically reduces demand over more than just the single day.

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +57 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +58 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +53 [today’s report]

Week 2 is +32

Week 3 is +33

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3550. [Last week was 3620]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1475. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.34 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.08 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The series of maintenance events in the Northeast over the last few days + two forced majeure events on TGP yesterday are leading to the lower production.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 79.3 Bcf today,  -1.97 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.7 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.6 Bcf. Overnight weather runs were bullish, with both the GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble adding CDDs next week.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.4 Bcf today.

Mexican exports are expected to be 7.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.6 Bcf today.

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