Daily Market Report – July 15, 2022

The EIA reported a +58 Bcf injection for the week ending July 8th, came in line with the market consensus and our final estimate of +57. This was a difficult week to nail after the +60 Bcf injection the previous week. With the two reports being at similar injection level, there actually was quite a big difference. Mainly the warmer temps (+2F nationally) looked to be cancelled out by the lower demand due to the holiday week. 

This storage report takes the total level to 2369 Bcf, which is 252 Bcf less than last year at this time and 319 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,688 Bcf.

Overall, we estimate this +58 Bcf injection is ~3.9 Bcf/d loose vs the historical rolling 5-week period (wx adjusted). We should note that this number had some additional loose factors embedded into it – namely the lower demand from the July 4^th holiday and the freeport outage.

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  96.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.16 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.02 Bcf/d to the 7D average. SC production rose over the past few days, but the midcon continues to stay lower.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 79.7 Bcf today,  -2.71 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.73 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 41.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.5 Bcf. Part of the reason for strong burns the past few days is the lower wind gen. Past this weekend, wind is expected to pick back up.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.4 Bcf today. Calcasieu Pass continues to hit new highs, with yesterday’s deliveries reaching 1.58 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 7.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today.

The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +42 Bcf today.

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