Both the GFS Ensemble and ECMWF Ensemble showed similar changes in today’s 00z vs the previous day. The front end of the range showed slightly cooler temps, while some more heat showed up in the back 11-15 day forecast. Despite the forecast generally cooling over the past couple of days, temps are still much above the 10 year normal. This along with low prices has been leading to record burns.
According to Bloomberg, we hit a record high power burn of 48.9 Bcf/d on July 20th. Prior to this summer, the max level reached was 45.8 Bcf/d last summer.
Adding to the high power burns is a big jump in nuclear outages. This week we saw a spike in outages that shows over 150 GWh offline leading to more baseload nat gas generation. Current outage levels are well above last year’s levels and the 5yr average.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 85.3 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.8 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.9 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.8 Bcf today, -1.2 Bcf compared to the yesterday and -1.14 Bcf to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 43.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 3.5 Bcf/d today.
Mexican exports are 6.5 Bcf/d. Net Canadian are 3.9 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-July-23-2020.pdf