As seen in the chart below, L48 temps typically hit their peak in the last week of July after which CDDs start to decline. In today’s 00z run, both the GFS Ensemble and ECMWF Ensemble show that trend and further cooled in the 6-10 day and 11-15 day range from Sunday’s 00z run. The Midwest and South Central lead that shift cooler. In total the GFS Ensemble lost 5.2 CDDs and the ECMWF Ensemble lost 2.1 CDDs across the 15D forecast window. Since the beginning of July, the first week of August with be the first time we see temps hover close to the 10Y normal.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 86.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.11 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.10 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.8 Bcf today, -0.71 Bcf compared to the yesterday and -2.14 Bcf to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.2 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 3.1 Bcf/d today.
Mexican exports are 6.0 Bcf/d. Net Canadian are 4.1 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-July-27-2020.pdf