For the storage report for week ending July 24, our estimates are pointing to a 22 Bcf injection. The tighter balances week-on-week are primarily driven by increased power burns, although both LNG deliveries and Mexican exports increased as well. The power burns averaged 45.8 Bcf/d for the week, with July 20th hitting an all-time high at 49 Bcf/d. The current Bloomberg survey sits at 25 Bcf.
Data from the DTI, TCO (Columbia Gas) and SSE (Southern Star) continue to show injection. DTI is now 73% full, TCO is 69% full, and SSE is 88% full.
|
Storage Week Ending Jul 24, 2020 |
|
|
||
|
|
vs. Last Week |
vs. Last Year |
Current Storage Level |
% of Peak Recorded |
|
DTI |
+1 |
+33 |
217 |
73% |
|
Hardy |
0 |
+0.3 |
11.2 |
84% |
|
Columbia Gas |
+7.4 |
+14.1 |
176.9 |
69% |
|
Southern Star |
+0.2 |
+8.9 |
40.1 |
88% |
In LNG news, Chevron aims to bring Train 2 at the Australian Gorgon LNG complex back online in early September. It has started to fix welding cracks on eight propane heat exchange vessels, or kettles, discovered during planned maintenance that had been scheduled to end 11 July. Chevron will update the market on the status of the Gorgon plant in its 31 July earnings call. With this facility out, there is the opportunity for more US Gulf Coast LNG to flow to make up for the lost capacity.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 84.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -2.04 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.63 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.2 Bcf today, -3.03 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.45 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 44.64 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 44.6 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.9 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-July-28-2020.pdf