Yesterday, the EIA reported at 26 Bcf injection which was slightly higher than expectations. This storage report will likely be the smallest injection of the season.
The bearish storage number added to the downward pressure on price that was set off earlier in the morning with a bearish short-term weather outlook.
The bearish trend in weather continues with both models posting a drop in CDDs in their 00z run vs yesterday. At the moment there isn’t much alignment between the two model past the 1-5 day period. The GFS Ensemble is much warmer than the ECMWF Ensemble.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 85.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.66 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.5 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 79.6 Bcf today, +0.16 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.32 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 45.44 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 3.3 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.5 Bcf today.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-July-31-2020.pdf