Daily balances are tight once again today with steep production losses continuing. Some production volumes that were lost due to the TCO forced majeure did show up on other pipelines yesterday – resulting in a total 0.6-0.7 Bcf/d being shut-in. Other regions that saw lower volumes were the Gulf and Rockies. Overall production is down 1.7 Bcf/d vs the past 7 days.
These tighter daily balances will show up in next week’s storage report. For this Thursday’s report, which covers week ending July 3rd, our storage estimate is a 57 Bcf injection. The S/D balances were tighter week-on-week with increased power burns leading to a slower injection rate. We could expect some upside risk to our forecast with last week being somewhat of a holiday week, i.e. people starting the long weekend early.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 83.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.74 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.6 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.6 Bcf today, +0.1 Bcf compared to the yesterday and +1.9 Bcf to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 41.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.5 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 3.0 Bcf/d today.
Mexican exports are 6.0 Bcf/d. Net Canadian imports increased to 4.4 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-July-8-2020.pdf