For this today’s report, which covers week ending July 3rd, our storage estimate is a 57 Bcf injection. The S/D balances were tighter week-on-week with increased power burns leading to a slower injection rate. We could expect some upside risk to our forecast with last week being somewhat of a holiday week, i.e. people starting the long weekend early.
LNG Exports fell below 3.0 Bcf/d for today’s gas day. This is the lowest level since Feb 2019. All major facilities, with the exception of Cove Point, are operating well below their peak observed levels. Freeport has been taking in 0 for the past three days.
July LNG deliveries have averaged 3.0 Bcf/d so far. At this rate, we estimated the number of cargo cancellation in July to total 46 cargos.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 83.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.84 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.4 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 76.0 Bcf today, -0.42 Bcf compared to the yesterday and +2.83 Bcf to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 2.9 Bcf/d today.
Mexican exports are 6.1 Bcf/d. Net Canadian imports increased to 4.8 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-July-9-2020.pdf