Daily Market Report – June 01, 2022 [RESEND]

*The RESEND includes a correction to my storage outlook for tomorrow.
“For week ending May 27th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a +84 Bcf injection while our flow model is higher with a +87 Bcf”

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.1 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.81 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.27 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Today’s nomination data shows production retreating in the SC and Northeast. This could related to the 1^st of the month nomination noise. We expect today’s numbers to be revised higher as we work through the week.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 69.9 Bcf today,  -1.88 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.73 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 32.2 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.7 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.7 Bcf today. Sabine Pass levels did bounce back up today after being lower for just one day.

Mexican exports are expected to be 7.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.8 Bcf today. Pipe flows to Mexico continue to rise as the heat picks up, and LNG is a less economic option.

For week ending May 27th, our S/D storage model is pointing to a +84 Bcf injection while our flow model is higher with a +87 Bcf. Below is the regional break down of the flow based model + the week storage activity at the 4 facilities that report on a weekly basis. This is likely to be the highest injection for the first half of the year. The Northeast showed a big injection, which was driven returning production and shoulder season demand. The East storage region as a whole is 56 Bcf behind LY, which is concerning. We anticipate production picking up in the region to fill the gap this summer.

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