The EIA reported a +90 Bcf injection for the week ending May 27th, which came in higher than market estimates. This storage report takes the total level to 1902 Bcf, which is 397 Bcf less than last year at this time and 337 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,238 Bcf. All the regions looked relatively fair to us, except the SC which reported injection 5-7 Bcf higher than we were expecting. In particular, non-Salt storage threw off our estimate once again.
Overall, this report indicated injection are ~1.4 Bcf/d loose vs last summer (wx adjusted). If we were to focus solely on the injection and weather relationship in Q2 2021 then this number was about 1.0 Bcf/d looser (wx adjusted). See the chart below.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.8 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.9 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Today’s drop looks to be concentrated in the SC and NE. This figure could be revised higher in later nomination cycles, as we have seen the past few days. So far the first couple of days of June are show 96.6 Bcf/d of production.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 69.1 Bcf today, -2.22 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.44 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 31.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.6 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.8 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.1 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +98 Bcf today. This could be the closest we get to a triple digit injection this quarter.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-June-03-2022.pdf