Yesterday the EIA reported a +98 Bcf storage injection for the week ending May 28. The number came in slightly above market consensus, and close to our estimate of +100. This report once again supports loosening conditions. The summer started off with daily balances being 6-7 Bcf/d tighter YoY (wx adj). Those dynamics have quickly shifted to this week’s report being only 0.5 Bcf/d tight YoY (Apr to Aug data only), and now 0.4 Bcf looser than the 3Yr average.
The bearish number sent the prompt month lower, but this morning the market is where it was pre-report.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 90.7 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.76 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.04 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 65.1 Bcf today, -0.51 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +1.29 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.2 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7.5 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 4.1 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +96 Bcf today.
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-June-04-2021.pdf