The prompt-month contract is sitting near $9/MMBtu following signs of stalling dry gas production and intensifying heat forecasts for mid-to-late June. ERCOT is once again the region that is experience the peak heat, but this time wind is not expected to be robust. Last week going into the weekend, overall national wind levels dropped will below expected levels leading to strong power burns.
Here is the latest plot looking at gas generation as a share of the total thermal gen stack as prices evolve this summer:
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.36 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.8 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 68.5 Bcf today, +1.38 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.69 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 30.4 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.4 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 12.7 Bcf today. Calcasieu Pass continues to ramp higher ahead of schedule—reaching new facility highs north of 1.3 Bcf/d on Sunday. At this rate, we could see total LNG deliveries hit 14 Bcf/d if Sabine Pass returns to is max observed levels above 5 Bcf/d.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.2 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +99 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-June-06-2022.pdf