Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.97 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.23 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US gas production was restated much higher yesterday in later nom cycles to nearly reach 97 Bcf/d. We are expecting today’s final flows to be restated higher as well to take production climbing to levels we saw in late-April.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 70.8 Bcf today, +0.43 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.66 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 34.5 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.3 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 13 Bcf today. All facilities other than Sabine are running at optimal levels.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today. Canadian imports have started to pick up with the latest round of heat. Flows onto Norther Borders picked up late in the week, while flows from Michigan into Ontario dropped off keeping more gas within the US.
For week ending June 3rd, our S/D storage model is pointing to a +99 Bcf injection while our flow model is higher with a +102 Bcf. Below is the regional break down of the flow based model + the week storage activity at the 4 facilities that report on a weekly basis. This is likely to be the highest injection for the first half of the year. The Northeast showed a big injection, which was driven returning production and shoulder season demand. The East storage region as a whole is 52 Bcf behind LY. We anticipate production picking up in the region to fill the gap this summer.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
NatGas-Daily-Report-June-08-2022.pdf