Daily Market Report – June 09, 2022

For today’s storage report our final projection is +101 Bcf (S/D +99 and Flow +102). We are slightly higher than the market consensus of +99, as we put a bit more weight on the flow model that has been performing well this quarter.

This is the results of our flow estimate.

The current Bloomberg survey is +98 and Bloomberg whisper is currently at +97 (the whisper is the average of the 17 top analysts).

Here are the current ICE storage future settles as of yesterday.

Week 1 is +94 [today’s report]

Week 2 is +82

Week 3 is +73

There current end of Summer 2022 (Nov 10^th) is 3400. [Last week was 3400]
There current end of Winter 2022/23 (Apr 13^th) is 1672. [no OI]

Today’s Fundamentals

Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be  95.6 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.31 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.71 Bcf/d to the 7D average.

Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 71.3 Bcf today,  -0.58 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.84 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 34.9 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.2 Bcf.

Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today. Today we are still showing small nominations to the Freeport plant, but that will be likely be revised to 0 later today.

At this point, Freeport is expected to be down for at least 3 weeks as the PHMSA investigates the issue. By the looks of it, it appears the explosion was near the storage tanks. We are not sure what that means for the plant operation, but we could have a partial restart towards the end of this month. The Freeport facility can produce about 2 Bcf/d of LNG from three trains. It’s also the only liquefaction facility in the United States, and one of only two export terminals in the world, that use electric motors instead of natural gas turbines to drive liquefaction compressors

@RonH twitter

We anticipate the impact to gas balances to be 44 Bcf if the plant is only down for the 3 weeks. If we see a partial restart after that, we could see 2 of 3 trains returns if only one storage (out of 3) was impacted. That could bring total flows to the plant to 1.4 Bcf/d.

Mexican exports are expected to be 7.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 6 Bcf today.

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