The EIA reported a +97 Bcf injection for the week ending June 3rd, which came in right at market estimates. Last week was likely the closest we got to a triple-digit injection this quarter, and that was mainly with the help of the long weekend demand dip. This storage report takes the total level to 1999 Bcf, which is 398 Bcf less than last year at this time and 340 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,238 Bcf. Overall, we estimate this +97 Bcf injection is ~3+ Bcf/d loose vs last summer (wx adjusted).
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.5 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.58 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.73 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production peak this week on Jun 7th, and after that we saw lower volumes out of the SC once again.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 73.8 Bcf today, +0.12 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +3.97 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 34.7 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.9 Bcf today. Freeport deliveries got restated to 0 for yesterday, and that should continue for atleast 3 week shut down. The facility owner finally put out a statement yesterday saying “ became necessary to bring the Liquefaction Trains 1, 2, and 3 down due to an in-plant incident that resulted in a fire in the liquefaction delivery system”. There is no new information in terms of timeframe, but it seems that the market does not expect this to be out for too long with yesterday price action back up to $9.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7.3 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.9 Bcf today. Canadian imports have once again picked up with the Northern Borders route receiving more from AECO.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +94 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-June-10-2022.pdf