Our storage estimate for week ending June 12 is a 89 Bcf injection. The S/D balances were tighter week-on-week with injections at a slower rate. We are no longer in the triple digit injection territory, and most likely will not get there until after the peak heat disappears in September.
ResComm demand is near seasonal lows, but power generation consumption continues to move higher each week as the summer heat comes in. This week the power gen consumption moved higher by 1.9 Bcf/d to average 33.7 Bcf/d. This was somewhat offset by LNG which had deliveries drop by 1.2 Bcf/d.
LNG volumes continue to slide, and have got comfortable below 4.0 Bcf/d. Sabine, Freeport and Chorpus Christie have all added to the big drop. The June average is 3.9 Bcf/d so far with the rest of summer shipping economics pointing to a weak summer.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 84.2 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.03 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.3 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 66.5 Bcf today, +1.8 Bcf compared to yesterday and +2.0 Bcf to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 33.6 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.0 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 3.7 Bcf/d today.
Mexican exports are 5.8 Bcf/d. Net Canadian imports increased to 3.9 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-June-17-2020.pdf