After the long weekend, traders are coming back to a big change in the forecast. Temps move to more normal levels past this week. The GFS Ensemble and Euro Ensemble showed good alignment in the change but reducing the total CDD count by 15-16 F over the next 15 days. This change continues to be immense pressure on price.
With the latest 00z forecast, here is how the current 15 day outlook looks:
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.9 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.15 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +0.07 Bcf/d to the 7D average. Production out of the SC was off today to take the region back under 37 Bcf/d. Likewise the Northeast is off as well to under 34 Bcf/d.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75 Bcf today, +2.53 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.09 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 37.8 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.1 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.2 Bcf today. Sabine looks to be regaining some strength, but is struggling due the strong ambient temperature. If we saw our weekend report, this should be a good preview of how operation will look at the plant this summer. Also notable on the LNG front is the new record set by Calcasieu Pass today of 1.54 Bcf/d.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7.1 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +62 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-June-21-2022.pdf