Our storage estimate for week ending June 19 is a 108 Bcf injection. The S/D balances were looser week-on-week with increased daily injections. We are once again looking for a triple digit injection. This should now be the last one until after the peak heat disappears in September.
For this reporting period , rescomm demand is near seasonal lows, and power generation dropped week-on-week with more moderate temps. Power gen consumption dropped by 2.9 Bcf/d to average 30.7 Bcf/d. LNG already remained essentially flat week-on-week at an average of 3.8 Bcf. This volume represents 1 tankers worth of gas being delivered each day to all US facilities, after you strip away the 10-15% used on site for facility operation.
The scrapes show power burns higher year-on-year with warmer temps, but overall power burns look to be the same level weather-adjusted.
Today’s Fundamentals:
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 83.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -0.45 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.1 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 70.0 Bcf today, -0.55 Bcf compared to yesterday and +1.64 Bcf to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.0 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 4.5 Bcf/d today.
Mexican exports are 5.9 Bcf/d. Net Canadian imports increased to 4.2 Bcf/d.
Bloomberg IM: Het Shah
enelyst DM: @het.co
Tel: 917-975-2960
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ION-Energy-Daily-Report-June-24-2020.pdf