The EIA reported a +74 Bcf injection for the week ending June 10th, which came in much higher than the market consensus. The range for this week’s report was quite wide, but the final number came in well beyond the high side to point to very loose conditions. This storage report takes the total level to 2169 Bcf, which is 305 Bcf less than last year at this time and 331 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,500 Bcf.
This storage report fortunately did not include any revisions, but caught the market off guard. There was an immediate price response as the market was already under pressure due to the Freeport outage and lightening weather conditions.
All the regions looked relatively fair to us, except the SC which reported injection 5-7 Bcf higher than we were expecting. In particular, non-Salt storage threw off our estimate once again. We have been noticing non-salt storage coming in stronger that our flow model since the start of summer, and we attribute this to production levels stronger most vendors have been modelling.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 95.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.22 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -0.13 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 75.2 Bcf today, -1.11 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +2.25 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38.3 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.4 Bcf today. LNG deliveries remain low with Freeport out, and Sabine hovering at the ~4 Bcf/d level. Additionally, Calcasieu Pass has cooled off a bit after hitting peak levels last week.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +80 Bcf today.
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NatGas-Daily-Report-June-24-2022.pdf