Today’s weather runs vs Friday’s 00z are somewhat neutral to bearish. The GFS was somewhat neutral, while the Euro Ensemble was quite bearish for next week. For the Euro Ensemble, we saw a few CDDs show up this week and few fall off the following week. Here are how the current temps look vs the 10Y normal by EIA storage region.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 96.8 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is +0.48 Bcf/d to the 7D average. The ramp up over the weekend comes out of Northeast which saw production climb by 0.5 Bcf/d to 34.5 Bcf/d. There is still room in the Northeast to ramp up to late-Dec levels which were closer to 35.5 Bcf/d. The limitation of takeaway capacity is a concern, but with regional storage levels sitting at a big deficit to normal there is the possibility of a ramp up.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 74.5 Bcf today, -0.72 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -2.07 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 38.1 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 7.9 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 10.4 Bcf today. Despite global spreads remain quite wide, Sabine deliveries remain around 4 Bcf/d. Also we see Calcasieu Pass deliveries falling below 1 Bcf/d this weekend after hitting 1.4+ in mid-June.
Mexican exports are expected to be 6.9 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.5 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +76 Bcf today.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
NatGas-Daily-Report-June-27-2022.pdf