The market is higher this morning, but we do not see a fundamental change triggering this move. Both weather models are showing slight more heat in the 6-10 day range vs yesterday’s 12z run. The additional heat is in the Pacific and Mountain regions, whiles other gas regions are close to flat or even cooler.
Below is the view of the current forecast vs the 10Y normal. Surprisingly the South Central is cooler than the 10Y normal and Midwest/East are only above in the 11-15 day period.
According to Maxar, here is how June is expected to finish off. There is now strong correlation between June and July weather, but current forecast show the West getting above now heat as observed in June.
Today’s Fundamentals
Daily US natural gas production is estimated to be 91.4 Bcf/d this morning. Today’s estimated production is -1.13 Bcf/d to yesterday, and -1.23 Bcf/d to the 7D average.
Natural gas consumption is modelled to be 77.8 Bcf today, -0.8 Bcf/d to yesterday, and +6.49 Bcf/d to the 7D average. US power burns are expected to be 42 Bcf today, and US ResComm usage is expected to be 8.8 Bcf.
Net LNG deliveries are expected to be 11.1 Bcf today.
Mexican exports are expected to be 7.2 Bcf today, and net Canadian imports are expected to be 5.4 Bcf today.
The storage outlook for the upcoming report is +73 Bcf today.
This email, any information contained herein and any files transmitted with it (collectively, the Material) are the sole property of OTC Global Holdings LP and its affiliates (OTCGH); are confidential, may be legally privileged and are intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. Unauthorized disclosure, copying or distribution of the Material, is strictly prohibited and the recipient shall not redistribute the Material in any form to a third party. Please notify the sender immediately by email if you have received this email by mistake, delete this email from your system and destroy any hard copies. OTCGH waives no privilege or confidentiality due to any mistaken transmission of this email.
ION-Energy-Daily-Report-June-29-2021.pdf